Do you want to estimate
- the percentage of success
- the average, median and standard deviation of the net result
of your options trading strategy?
With Option Profit Probability Calculator you can.
Data input

- Choose the stock on which you want to create the option strategy.
- Pick the options according to the logics of your strategy.
- Fill out the data in the cells in light yellow of the Dashboard.
- “Vol” is the historical volatility of the stock, reported in the various web sites together with the quotes of the options; the file uses the “Vol” to calculate the value of the Implied Volatility (“IV”).
- You can find the Historical Volatility values in many websites, where you can also check the values of the highest and lowest of the recent period. Using the values of the historical volatility “Vol” and those of the implied volatility (IV), proceed to determine the mininum and maximum volatility and fill out the boxes Min Vol and Max Vol accordingly.
- Section “Entries“. The legs “Adj” are to be filled out only in case of adjustments being made to the options strategy.
- When a leg is closed, remember to classify it as “C” in the “Open/Closed” column and to manually book the closing price.
Data output

When all the data input is done, it is time to run the calculations: menu “Formulas”, command “Recalculate now“, and you can see the results in the “Probabilities & Results” box:
- the probability of success (%)
- the average, the median and the standard deviation of the profit or loss of the whole strategy, inclusive of all legs involved ($)
You can then compare these values for different expiry dates and/or different set of options and see which combination give you the highest probabilities and value of return.
How all this is calculated
To estimate the “Probabilities & Results”, the file generates twenty thousand calculations (using the Montecarlo theory) through twenty thousand different casual prices of the underline stock within the minimum and maximum price calculated according to the minimum and maximum volatilty of the stock.
How you can use the Options Profit Probability Calculator
Using different strike prices and/or expiry dates, within the logics of this Option strategy, you have the possibilty to compare different set of stock options, and then to pick the best for your strategy.
You have also the possibility to check the result of your option trade by updating the “current” quotes of the options.
What the Options Profit Probability Calculator does not give you
Remember: this file does not predict the movement of the stock nor the future options movements.
You can buy the Option Profit Probability Calculator for a group of options strategies or all together.
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